https://databurton.com/research Case studies and reference notes on machine learning, data engineering, and quantitative systems. en-us Sun, 14 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://databurton.com/research/cross_asset_correlation https://databurton.com/research/cross_asset_correlation Sun, 14 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT When correlations go to 1, your diversification was a fair-weather friend https://databurton.com/research/dollar_strength https://databurton.com/research/dollar_strength Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT The dollar's gravity: which currencies track it, and which float free https://databurton.com/research/dowjones https://databurton.com/research/dowjones Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Dow's worst month was a 5-sigma event a bell curve says is impossible https://databurton.com/research/global_inflation https://databurton.com/research/global_inflation Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT The 2021 inflation surge was the broadest in decades, not the worst https://databurton.com/research/gold_real https://databurton.com/research/gold_real Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Gold made its real high in 1980, and has been losing the rematch ever since https://databurton.com/research/market_drawdowns https://databurton.com/research/market_drawdowns Sat, 30 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT 150 years of S&P 500 drawdowns: the market is usually underwater https://databurton.com/research/market_seasonality https://databurton.com/research/market_seasonality Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Sell in May, and other things the calendar does not actually tell you https://databurton.com/research/market_valuation https://databurton.com/research/market_valuation Sun, 24 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT What you pay for stocks sets what you earn, and right now you are paying a lot https://databurton.com/research/natural_gas_vol https://databurton.com/research/natural_gas_vol Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Natural gas is the widow-maker, and the winter is where it earns the name https://databurton.com/research/oil_shocks https://databurton.com/research/oil_shocks Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Forty years of Brent, and the shocks that define it https://databurton.com/research/stocks https://databurton.com/research/stocks Fri, 15 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Apple turned $1 into $8.60. Everyone else mostly stood still. https://databurton.com/research/atlas-disabling-ml-in-production https://databurton.com/research/atlas-disabling-ml-in-production Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT What I learned when my live trading system's ML ensemble silently degraded in production, and the disciplined reintroduction of machine learning that came after. https://databurton.com/research/vix_anatomy https://databurton.com/research/vix_anatomy Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT The VIX spends most of its life bored, then loses its mind https://databurton.com/research/brain_networks https://databurton.com/research/brain_networks Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT 62 signals, 21 real dimensions: redundancy that does not look like redundancy https://databurton.com/research/breast_cancer https://databurton.com/research/breast_cancer Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Three of thirty features get you within 0.02 AUC of the full model https://databurton.com/research/breast_cancer_threshold https://databurton.com/research/breast_cancer_threshold Sun, 03 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT I would rather flag thirteen benign tumors than miss four malignant ones https://databurton.com/research/diamonds_predict https://databurton.com/research/diamonds_predict Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT A gradient booster prices diamonds to $276. Then it meets a big one. https://databurton.com/research/digits https://databurton.com/research/digits Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Twenty numbers per digit gets you 94% of the way there https://databurton.com/research/digits_pixels https://databurton.com/research/digits_pixels Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Twelve of the 64 pixels are dead, and the classifier never misses them https://databurton.com/research/flights https://databurton.com/research/flights Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Losing to Holt-Winters by 4.6 points was the good news https://databurton.com/research/flights_decompose https://databurton.com/research/flights_decompose Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT 44 passengers in 1949, 232 in 1960, the same summer bump https://databurton.com/research/geyser https://databurton.com/research/geyser Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Old Faithful is two geysers wearing a trench coat https://databurton.com/research/glue https://databurton.com/research/glue Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT The 0.7 points that decide a leaderboard, and where they come from https://databurton.com/research/glue_transition https://databurton.com/research/glue_transition Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT 22.67 points: what the field bought by dropping the recurrence https://databurton.com/research/penguins https://databurton.com/research/penguins Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Two penguin measurements beat four https://databurton.com/research/penguins_sex https://databurton.com/research/penguins_sex Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT A female Gentoo outweighs a male Adelie by 636 grams https://databurton.com/research/titanic_model https://databurton.com/research/titanic_model Tue, 31 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT The random forest lost. By 0.002 AUC. https://databurton.com/research/wine https://databurton.com/research/wine Sat, 28 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Three numbers off a wine label beat your fancy model https://databurton.com/research/wine_quality https://databurton.com/research/wine_quality Wed, 25 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Wine quality is mostly just alcohol, and even that only gets you so far https://databurton.com/research/carbon_emitters https://databurton.com/research/carbon_emitters Sun, 22 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Who actually emits the carbon, and the answer depends on how you count https://databurton.com/research/co2 https://databurton.com/research/co2 Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT The CO2 rise is speeding up, and the curvature is the story https://databurton.com/research/global_temp https://databurton.com/research/global_temp Mon, 16 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT The warming rate has sextupled, and the line cannot keep up https://databurton.com/research/seaice https://databurton.com/research/seaice Fri, 13 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Arctic's September floor is dropping 0.84 million km² a decade https://databurton.com/research/world_drinking https://databurton.com/research/world_drinking Tue, 10 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT A world map of drinking, and what the colors give away https://databurton.com/research/world_energy https://databurton.com/research/world_energy Sat, 07 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Where the world's energy actually comes from https://databurton.com/research/bechdel_test https://databurton.com/research/bechdel_test Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT The Bechdel test at 50: the pass rate climbed, then stopped https://databurton.com/research/birdstrikes https://databurton.com/research/birdstrikes Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Birds do not hit planes at cruise. They hit them on approach. https://databurton.com/research/car_crashes https://databurton.com/research/car_crashes Thu, 26 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT Higher insurance premiums do not mean more dangerous roads https://databurton.com/research/car_crashes_clusters https://databurton.com/research/car_crashes_clusters Mon, 23 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT Two Americas of driving risk, and the insurer charges them the same https://databurton.com/research/congress_age https://databurton.com/research/congress_age Fri, 20 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT Congress got older, but it took a detour first https://databurton.com/research/crimea https://databurton.com/research/crimea Tue, 17 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT In the Crimea, disease killed eight soldiers for every one the enemy did https://databurton.com/research/disasters https://databurton.com/research/disasters Sat, 14 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT Five years killed 44% of everyone who died in a natural disaster since 1900 https://databurton.com/research/driving https://databurton.com/research/driving Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT For fifty years, gas prices barely changed how much Americans drove https://databurton.com/research/gapminder https://databurton.com/research/gapminder Sun, 08 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT Money buys life expectancy, but the receipt is brutal https://databurton.com/research/github_commits https://databurton.com/research/github_commits Thu, 05 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT The 9-to-5 I went looking for was not in the commits https://databurton.com/research/healthexp https://databurton.com/research/healthexp Mon, 02 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT The US spent $7,194 more per person than Japan and died 7.7 years sooner https://databurton.com/research/healthexp_trajectories https://databurton.com/research/healthexp_trajectories Fri, 30 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT In 1991 the US health-spending gap crossed $1,000 and never came back https://databurton.com/research/jobs_gender https://databurton.com/research/jobs_gender Tue, 27 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT The job that went from all-male to 96% female https://databurton.com/research/major_salaries https://databurton.com/research/major_salaries Sat, 24 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Your major sets the odds, not the salary https://databurton.com/research/movies https://databurton.com/research/movies Wed, 21 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Spend more, make more, but a third of films lose money anyway https://databurton.com/research/population https://databurton.com/research/population Sun, 18 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT At 90, there are three women for every man https://databurton.com/research/tips https://databurton.com/research/tips Thu, 15 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Tip 18.6% on a small check, 13.3% on a big one https://databurton.com/research/unemployment_industry https://databurton.com/research/unemployment_industry Mon, 12 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Construction hit 27% unemployment. Government never cracked 6. https://databurton.com/research/us_employment https://databurton.com/research/us_employment Fri, 09 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Construction lost almost a third of its jobs, and never got them back https://databurton.com/research/world_gdp https://databurton.com/research/world_gdp Tue, 06 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Five countries own half the world economy https://databurton.com/research/death_zone https://databurton.com/research/death_zone Sat, 03 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT The deadliest mountain is not the one you think https://databurton.com/research/exercise https://databurton.com/research/exercise Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT Thirty people, ninety pulses, and one mistake everyone makes https://databurton.com/research/olympic_bodies https://databurton.com/research/olympic_bodies Sun, 28 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT The body an Olympic sport builds, and how it sharpened over a century https://databurton.com/research/olympic_medals https://databurton.com/research/olympic_medals Thu, 25 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT A century of Olympic medal power, and who traded the lead https://databurton.com/research/anscombe https://databurton.com/research/anscombe Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT Four datasets agree on every number and agree on nothing else https://databurton.com/research/attention https://databurton.com/research/attention Fri, 19 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT Focused attention wins by 1.68 points, until the task gets easier https://databurton.com/research/diamonds https://databurton.com/research/diamonds Tue, 16 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT The best-cut diamonds are the cheapest, and other lies the data tells https://databurton.com/research/diamonds_4cs https://databurton.com/research/diamonds_4cs Sat, 13 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT Two of a diamond's measurements are basically decoration https://databurton.com/research/dots https://databurton.com/research/dots Wed, 10 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT Stronger evidence does not raise the signal, it splits it https://databurton.com/research/fmri https://databurton.com/research/fmri Sun, 07 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT The average brain response is a curve, and averaging is what draws it https://databurton.com/research/lessons https://databurton.com/research/lessons Thu, 04 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT Three numbers off a wine label, and four other things 30 datasets taught me https://databurton.com/research/mpg https://databurton.com/research/mpg Mon, 01 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT A bigger engine made these cars more efficient, and other lies of regression https://databurton.com/research/mpg_origin https://databurton.com/research/mpg_origin Fri, 28 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT Detroit caught up to Japan, but only after you weigh the cars https://databurton.com/research/planets https://databurton.com/research/planets Tue, 25 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT The exoplanet catalog is a map of our telescopes, not the galaxy https://databurton.com/research/planets_distribution https://databurton.com/research/planets_distribution Sat, 22 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT Almost seven orders of magnitude, and the planets pile up at one end https://databurton.com/research/seattle_weather https://databurton.com/research/seattle_weather Wed, 19 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT Seattle rains 43.9% of the time. So does it sun. https://databurton.com/research/titanic https://databurton.com/research/titanic Sun, 16 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT Women and children first, or first class first? https://databurton.com/research/titanic_family https://databurton.com/research/titanic_family Thu, 13 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT The Titanic's loneliest passengers, and its largest families, drowned together https://databurton.com/research/weather_seattle_vs_ny https://databurton.com/research/weather_seattle_vs_ny Mon, 10 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT Seattle rains on more days than New York, and still ends up drier https://databurton.com/research/wind_circular https://databurton.com/research/wind_circular Fri, 07 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT The wind blew north. The average said east-southeast. https://databurton.com/research/ag_exports https://databurton.com/research/ag_exports Tue, 04 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT Five states ship a third of US farm exports, and none grow the same thing https://databurton.com/research/flights_network https://databurton.com/research/flights_network Sat, 01 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMT Ten airports own a third of US air traffic, a partition pattern I have shipped https://databurton.com/research/taxis https://databurton.com/research/taxis Wed, 29 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT 43 zones carry 80% of the trips. Plan your partitions accordingly. https://databurton.com/research/taxis_fares https://databurton.com/research/taxis_fares Sun, 26 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT I rebuilt the taxi meter from 6,427 receipts. It charges $2.07 a mile. https://databurton.com/research/database-optimization-reference-guide https://databurton.com/research/database-optimization-reference-guide Sat, 04 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT Six database optimization techniques — predicate pushdown, row group pruning, result caching, async I/O, indexes, and where SIMD goes wrong — with impact numbers and code. https://databurton.com/research/timeseries-query-engine-case-study https://databurton.com/research/timeseries-query-engine-case-study Sat, 04 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT I replaced DuckDB with a custom Rust query engine for a trading-system time-series workload. Five iterations, 10.4× speedup, one optimization that backfired. https://databurton.com/research/atlas-forecasting-system-case-study https://databurton.com/research/atlas-forecasting-system-case-study Fri, 03 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT How the Atlas forecasting system handles 542,000 rows/second of market data with sub-second regime detection — async service architecture, dependency-ordered startup, and 10Hz health monitoring. https://databurton.com/research/atlas-database-optimization-case-study https://databurton.com/research/atlas-database-optimization-case-study Fri, 03 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT Atlas couldn't start. The trading system's database initialization was taking 6.6 seconds, blocking 37 features from loading. The fix was small. https://databurton.com/research/ml-deployment-reference-guide https://databurton.com/research/ml-deployment-reference-guide Fri, 03 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMT Serving architectures, containerization, lifecycle management, performance optimization, drift detection, and monitoring — with benchmarks and code from production systems. https://databurton.com/research/matplotlib-cinematic-visualizations https://databurton.com/research/matplotlib-cinematic-visualizations Wed, 15 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT A small Python library of matplotlib themes — Film Noir, Ghibli, Wes Anderson, Blade Runner, Star Wars — applied to 50,000 IMDB reviews. https://databurton.com/research/database-performance-optimization https://databurton.com/research/database-performance-optimization Tue, 08 Oct 2024 00:00:00 GMT A working reference for production database tuning — SQLite PRAGMAs, schema, indexing, transactions, batching, pooling, and the monitoring that proves it's working. https://databurton.com/research/ml-deployment-best-practices https://databurton.com/research/ml-deployment-best-practices Tue, 10 Sep 2024 00:00:00 GMT A field-tested reference for taking ML models from prototype to production — serving patterns, containerization, monitoring, drift detection, and the operational practices that make the difference. https://databurton.com/research/wasm-data-visualization https://databurton.com/research/wasm-data-visualization Tue, 10 Sep 2024 00:00:00 GMT Building browser-side data visualizations in Rust compiled to WebAssembly — particle systems, large-dataset rendering, and the practical wins over a pure-JS implementation. https://databurton.com/research/data-pipelines-modern-business https://databurton.com/research/data-pipelines-modern-business Wed, 14 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMT Built a pipeline that extracts 296 businesses from Chamber of Commerce directories in 9 minutes using a local 7B-parameter model — 100% name/phone capture, no API costs.